About five days ago it was reported in the news media that Jeremy Farrar, the incoming chief scientist at the World Health Organisation (WHO) had urged governments to ensure that the pharmaceutical industry crank up trials and thereafter the production of avian flu (H5N1) vaccines in preparation for a possible pandemic.
He felt that the British government was not doing enough to avert what might be another devastating pandemic following Covid-19.
And of course, the vaccine production facilities and researchers are geared up to produce new vaccines because of Covid. It would seem to me that they are in a good position to research and then manufacturer vaccines against other influenza strains such as bird flu.
And that early warning a little while ago has been reinforced by another story in The Times today after a girl aged 11 died of avian flu in the Far East.
There were two confirms bird flu infections in Cambodia. One concerning the girl who died and her father who tested positive for the virus.
People in contact with the two are under observation. The key scary issue is that there may have been transmission of this virus between people which, as I understand it, has hitherto been unconfirmed but it is a worry because with that possibility there is the consequential possibility of an epidemic and possible pandemic.
At the moment, however, they believe that the risk is small. But there has been a surge in bird flu cases across the world in both wild and farmed birds.
The WHO has urged heightened vigilance among health authorities to report cases of the virus in mammals and humans.
Since avian flu was first seen in people in 1996, more than 850 have contracted it, most through direct contact with birds. Around 50% of them died. A high percentage which is worrying.
The scientists still believed that it is unlikely that the virus will spread among people. However, the UK Health Security Agency has begun to look at the use of lateral flow tests to detect the virus as we used to detect Covid-19.
Dr. Sylvie Briand, the director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention at the WHO said:
“The global H5N1 situation is worrying given the wide spread of the flu virus in birds around the world and the increasing reports of cases in mammals, including humans.”
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The girl who died developed a sore throat and cough together with a fever. She lived in a remote village in Prey Veng province. She caught the virus eight days ago. She was taken to a children’s hospital where she deteriorated and died last Wednesday.
Large numbers of wild birds across America and Europe have died of avian flu. There has been mass culling of domestic fowl, ducks and geese. Mammals such as foxes, mink and sea lions have also been infected.
The head of virology at the Animal and Plant Health Agency, Ian Brown, said that an important way to lower the risk is to control the spread in agriculture through culling animals and better hygiene.
There needs to be better monitoring and then rapid intervention. He said: “We protect public health by controlling the disease of kept birds.”
The scientists hope that the pandemic among birds will fizzle out as they gain immunity to the disease. The way the disease has spread this year indicates that this might happen.
Some scientists believe that there has been a change in the dynamics of the disease. Diana Bell, a professor of conservation biology from the University of East Anglia said: “I am worried that people are suffering from pandemic fatigue. This is already a pandemic in birds. We mustn’t be complacent.”
The Times science editor Tom Whipple mentions that in Peru hundreds of sea lions have died because of this influenza and there has been a mass outbreak in farmed mink in Spain.
He mentioned that the key information concerns the R number. This is the reproduction number. As I understand the R number, if it is more than one the disease is spreading if it is below one it is retracting.
Below are some articles on zoonotic diseases.
